@article{fdi:010070239,
  title = {{A}ssessing the hydrological response from an ensemble of {CMIP}5 climate projections in the transition zone of the {A}tlantic region ({B}ay of {B}iscay)},
  author = {{M}eaurio, {M}. and {Z}abaleta, {A}. and {B}oithias, {L}aurie and {E}pelde, {A}. {M}. and {S}auvage, {S}. and {S}anchez-{P}erez, {J}. {M}. and {S}rinivasan, {R}. and {A}ntiguedad, {I}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he climate changes projected for the 21st century will have consequences on the hydrological response of catchments. {T}hese changes, and their consequences, are most uncertain in the transition zones. {T}he study area, in the {B}ay of {B}iscay, is located in the transition zone of the {E}uropean {A}tlantic region, where hydrological impact of climate change was scarcely studied. {I}n order to address this scarcity, the hydrological impacts of climate change on river discharge were assessed. {T}o do so, a hydrological modelling was carried out considering 16 climate scenarios that include 5 {G}eneral {C}irculation {M}odels ({GCM}) from the 5th report of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}5), 2 statistical downscaling methods and 2 {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athways. {P}rojections for future discharge (2011-2100) were divided into three 30-year horizons (2030s, 2060s and 2090s) and a comparison was made between these time horizons and the baseline (1961-2000). {T}he results show that the downscaling method used resulted in a higher source of uncertainty than {GCM} itself. {I}n addition, the uncertainties inherent to the methods used at all the levels do not affect the results equally along the year. {I}n spite of those uncertainties, general trends for the 2090s predict seasonal discharge decreases by around -17% in autumn, -16% in spring, -11% in winter and -7% in summer. {T}hese results are in line with those predicted for the {A}tlantic region ({F}rance and the {I}berian {P}eninsula). {T}rends for extreme flows were also analysed: the most significant show an increase in the duration (days) of low flows. {F}rom an environmental point of view, and considering the need to meet the objectives established by the {W}ater {F}ramework {D}irective ({WFD}), this will be a major challenge for the future planning on water management.},
  keywords = {{CMIP}5 ; {H}ydrological trend ; {H}igh flow and low flow ; {SWAT} model ; {A}tlantic region ; {T}ransition zone ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD} ; {BISCAYE} {BAIE} ; {PAYS} {BASQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrology},
  volume = {548},
  numero = {},
  pages = {46--62},
  ISSN = {0022-1694},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.02.029},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070239},
}