@article{fdi:010070180,
  title = {{M}odeling the spread of avian influenza viruses in aquatic reservoirs : a novel hydrodynamic approach applied to the {R}hone delta (southern {F}rance)},
  author = {{V}ittecoq, {M}. and {G}auduin, {H}. and {O}udart, {T}. and {B}ertrand, {O}. and {R}oche, {B}enjamin and {G}uillemain, {M}. and {B}outron, {O}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}ild aquatic birds represent a natural reservoir of avian influenza viruses ({AIV}) that can be spread to poultry. {AIV} epizootics were associated with huge economic impacts during the last decades and are still of major concern. {W}ithin aquatic bird populations {AIV} are transmitted either by direct contact or through the ingestion of water that has been contaminated by infected individuals. {T}his second route involving environmental transmission is of utmost importance in {AIV} dynamics, yet it has received far less attention than direct bird-to-bird contamination. {O}ur objective was to combine a hydrodynamic model with data on mallard abundance and {AIV} infection rate within the population, so as to characterize virus dissemination within a complex wetland network. {W}e chose the {V}accar{S}s hydrosystem as a wetland model since it represents a large part of the {C}amargue region, which is a major wintering site for a large diversity of aquatic birds including {AIV} hosts. {W}e aimed to identify the environmental parameters that drive {AIV} dynamics within this system and the spatio-temporal pattern of dispersion and persistence of viruses. {O}ur results show that in a complex hydrosystemwe can expect a great heterogeneity in {AIV} risk among wetlands. {O}ur simulations underline how a simple " homogeneous box" approach could in the case of deltaic ecosystemsminimize the expected risk by diluting it in the whole system. {M}oreover, such undermining of the risk perception could affect the predictions relative to risk duration. {W}e present a new approach to identify hotspots of virus concentrations within deltaic areas that could take advantage of the duck count data, {AIV} surveys and hydrodynamicmodels thatmay already be available in severalmajor duck wintering areas comprised of complex hydrosystems, such as the large {E}uropean deltas. {O}ur method could be of particular interest to optimize surveillance strategies in the current context of highly pathogenic {AIV} diffusion within wild bird populations.},
  keywords = {{A}vian influenza viruses ; {W}ild birds ; {H}ydrodynamic model ; {M}allards ; {W}etlands ; {FRANCE} ; {RHONE} {DELTA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cience of the {T}otal {E}nvironment},
  volume = {595},
  numero = {},
  pages = {787--800},
  ISSN = {0048-9697},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.165},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070180},
}