@article{fdi:010069988,
  title = {{E}mergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans},
  author = {{K}wiatkowski, {L}. and {B}opp, {L}. and {A}umont, {O}livier and {C}iais, {P}. and {C}ox, {P}. {M}. and {L}aufkotter, {C}. and {L}i, {Y}. and {S}eferian, {R}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}arine primary production is a fundamental component of the {E}arth system, providing the main source of food and energy to the marine food web, and influencing the concentration of atmospheric {CO}2 (refs 1,2). {E}arth system model ({ESM}) projections of global marine primary production are highly uncertain with models projecting both increases(3,4) and declines of up to 20% by 2100(5,6). {T}his uncertainty is predominantly driven by the sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to climate change, with the latest {ESM}s suggesting twenty-first-century tropical declines of between 1 and 30% (refs 5,6). {H}ere we identify an emergent relationship(7-11) between the long-term sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to rising equatorial zone sea surface temperature ({SST}) and the interannual sensitivity of primary production to {E}l {N}ino/{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO})-driven {SST} anomalies. {S}atellite-based observations of the {ENSO} sensitivity of tropical primary production are then used to constrain projections of the long-term climate impact on primary production. {W}e estimate that tropical primary production will decline by 3 +/- 1% per kelvin increase in equatorial zone {SST}. {U}nder a business-as-usual emissions scenario this results in an 11 +/- 6% decline in tropical marine primary production and a 6 +/- 3% decline in global marine primary production by 2100.},
  keywords = {{ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {C}limate {C}hange},
  volume = {7},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {355--358 + 1p.},
  ISSN = {1758-678{X}},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1038/nclimate3265},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069988},
}