@article{fdi:010069966,
  title = {{F}requency of extreme {S}ahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations},
  author = {{T}aylor, {C}. {M}. and {B}elusic, {D}. and {G}uichard, {F}. and {A}rker, {D}. {J}. {P}. and {V}ischel, {T}. and {B}ock, {O}. and {H}arris, {P}. {P}. and {J}anicot, {S}erge and {K}lein, {C}. and {P}anthou, {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming(1), with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world(2-4), and predicting increases in future flood frequency(5). {S}uch early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall(6,7). {A} globally important group of intense storms-mesoscale convective systems ({MCS}s) 8-poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. {H}ere, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the {W}est {A}frican {S}ahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense {MCS}s. {S}ahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet(9), and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in 'extreme'(17) daily rainfall totals. {W}e find that intense {MCS} frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of {S}ahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. {A}nalysis of trends across {A}frica reveals that {MCS} intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the {S}ahara desert. {D}uring this period, wet-season {S}ahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. {O}n the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the {S}ahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced {S}aharan warming(10). {W}e argue that {S}aharan warming intensifies convection within {S}ahelian {MCS}s through increased wind shear and changes to the {S}aharan air layer. {T}he meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the {S}ahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. {T}he remarkably rapid intensification of {S}ahelian {MCS}s since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming, and challenges conventional projections made by general circulation models.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DE} l'{OUEST} ; {SAHEL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature},
  volume = {544},
  numero = {7651},
  pages = {475--478 +10 p.},
  ISSN = {0028-0836},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1038/nature22069},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069966},
}