Marchane A., Tramblay Yves, Hanich L., Ruelland D., Jarlan Lionel. (2017). Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas, Morocco). Hydrological Sciences Journal = Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 62 (6), p. 979-995. ISSN 0262-6667.
Titre du document
Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas, Morocco)
Marchane A., Tramblay Yves, Hanich L., Ruelland D., Jarlan Lionel
Source
Hydrological Sciences Journal = Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 2017,
62 (6), p. 979-995 ISSN 0262-6667
This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225km(2)) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 19892009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 20492065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4 degrees C to +2.6 degrees C) and a decrease in total precipitation (-22% to -31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (-19% to -63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.
