Publications des scientifiques de l'IRD

Djibo A. G., Karambiri H., Seidou O., Sittichok K., Philippon N., Paturel Jean-Emmanuel, Saley H. M. (2015). Linear and Non-Linear approaches for statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in the Sirba watershed region (SAHEL). Climate, 3 (3), p. 727-752. ISSN 2225-1154.

Titre du document
Linear and Non-Linear approaches for statistical seasonal rainfall forecast in the Sirba watershed region (SAHEL)
Année de publication
2015
Type de document
Article référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000363970200014
Auteurs
Djibo A. G., Karambiri H., Seidou O., Sittichok K., Philippon N., Paturel Jean-Emmanuel, Saley H. M.
Source
Climate, 2015, 3 (3), p. 727-752 ISSN 2225-1154
Since the 90s, several studies were conducted to evaluate the predictability of the Sahelian rainy season and propose seasonal rainfall forecasts to help stakeholders to take the adequate decisions to adapt with the predicted situation. Unfortunately, two decades later, the forecasting skills remains low and forecasts have a limited value for decision making while the population is still suffering from rainfall interannual variability: this shows the limit of commonly used predictors and forecast approaches for this region. Thus, this paper developed and tested new predictors and new approaches to predict the upcoming seasonal rainfall amount over the Sirba watershed. Predictors selected through a linear correlation analysis were further processed using combined linear methods to identify those having high predictive power. Seasonal rainfall was forecasted using a set of linear and non-linear models. An average lag time up to eight months was obtained for all models. It is found that the combined linear methods performed better than non-linear, possibly because non-linear models require larger and better datasets for calibration. The R-2, Nash and Hit rate score are respectively 0.53, 0.52, and 68% for the combined linear approach; and 0.46, 0.45, 61% for non-linear principal component analysis.
Plan de classement
Hydrologie [062]
Description Géographique
NIGER ; SAHEL
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010068846]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010068846
Contact