@article{fdi:010068823,
  title = {{P}erformance of the 'material {F}ailure {F}orecast {M}ethod' in real-time situations : a {B}ayesian approach applied on effusive and explosive eruptions},
  author = {{B}ou{\'e}, {A}. and {L}esage, {P}ascal and {C}ort{\`e}s, {G}. and {V}alette, {B}ernard and {R}eyes-{D}avila, {G}. and {A}rambula-{M}endoza, {R}. and {B}udi-{S}antoso, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}ost attempts of deterministic eruption forecasting are based on the material {F}ailure {F}orecast {M}ethod ({FFM}). {T}his method assumes that a precursory observable, such as the rate of seismic activity, can be described by a simple power law which presents a singularity at a time close to the eruption onset. {U}ntil now, this method has been applied only in a small number of cases, generally for forecasts in hindsight. {I}n this paper, a rigorous {B}ayesian approach of the {FFM} designed for real-time applications is applied. {U}sing an automatic recognition system, seismo-volcanic events are detected and classified according to their physical mechanism and time series of probability distributions of the rates of events are calculated. {A}t each time of observation, a {B}ayesian inversion provides estimations of the exponent of the power law and of the time of eruption, together with their probability density functions. {T}wo criteria are defined in order to evaluate the quality and reliability of the forecasts. {O}ur automated procedure has allowed the analysis of long, continuous seismic time series: 13 years from {V}olcan de {C}olima, {M}exico, 10 years from {P}iton de la {F}ournaise, {R}eunion {I}sland, {F}rance, and several months from {M}erapi volcano, {J}ava, {I}ndonesia. {T}he new forecasting approach has been applied to 64 pre-eruptive sequences which present various types of dominant seismic activity (volcano-tectonic or long-period events) and patterns of seis-micity with different level of complexity. {T}his has allowed us to test the {FFM} assumptions, to determine in which conditions the method can be applied, and to quantify the success rate of the forecasts. 62% of the precursory sequences analysed are suitable for the application of {FFM} and half of the total number of eruptions are successfully forecast in hindsight. {I}n real-time, the method allows for the successful forecast of 36% of all the eruptions considered. {N}evertheless, real-time forecasts are successful for 83% of the cases that fulfil the reliability criteria. {T}herefore, good confidence on the method is obtained when the reliability criteria are met.},
  keywords = {{E}ruption forecasting ; {S}tatistical analysis ; {R}eal-time ; {V}olcanic-seismology ; {T}ime-series analysis ; {A}utomatic recognition system},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {V}olcanology and {G}eothermal {R}esearch},
  volume = {327},
  numero = {},
  pages = {622--633},
  ISSN = {0377-0273},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.10.002},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010068823},
}