@article{fdi:010068776,
  title = {{A} chaotic model for the epidemic of {E}bola virus disease in {W}est {A}frica (2013-2016)},
  author = {{M}angiarotti, {S}ylvain and {P}eyre, {M}. and {H}uc, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}n epidemic of {E}bola {V}irus {D}isease ({EVD}) broke out in {G}uinea in {D}ecember 2013. {I}t was only identified in {M}arch 2014 while it had already spread out in {L}iberia and {S}ierra {L}eone. {T}he spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016. {T}he time evolution of this epidemic is revisited here with the global modeling technique which was designed to obtain the deterministic models from single time series. {A} generalized formulation of this technique for multivariate time series is introduced. {I}t is applied to the epidemic of {EVD} in {W}est {A}frica focusing on the period between {M}arch 2014 and {J}anuary 2015, that is, before any detected signs of weakening. {D}ata gathered by the {W}orld {H}ealth {O}rganization, based on the official publications of the {M}inistries of {H}ealth of the three main countries involved in this epidemic, are considered in our analysis. {T}wo observed time series are used: the daily numbers of infections and deaths. {A} four-dimensional model producing a very complex dynamical behavior is obtained. {T}he model is tested in order to investigate its skills and drawbacks. {O}ur global analysis clearly helps to distinguish three main stages during the epidemic. {A} characterization of the obtained attractor is also performed. {I}n particular, the topology of the chaotic attractor is analyzed and a skeleton is obtained for its structure. {P}ublished by {AIP} {P}ublishing.},
  keywords = {{GUINEE} ; {LIBERIA} ; {SIERRA} {LEONE} ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}haos},
  volume = {26},
  numero = {11},
  pages = {art. 113112 [15 p.]},
  ISSN = {1054-1500},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1063/1.4967730},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010068776},
}