@article{fdi:010068764,
  title = {{F}ood security or economic profitability ? {P}rojecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies},
  author = {{D}ueri, {S}ibylle and {G}uillotreau, {P}. and {J}imenez-{T}oribio, {R}. and {O}liveros-{R}amos, {R}. and {B}opp, {L}. and {M}aury, {O}livier},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}e investigate the interactions between anthropogenic climate change, socioeconomic developments and tuna fishery management strategies. {F}or this purpose, we use the {APECOSM}-{E} model to map the effects of climate change and commercial fishing on the distribution of skipjack tuna biomass in the three oceans, combined with a new bioeconomic module representing the rent or profit of skipjack fisheries. {F}or forcing, we use {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway ({RCP}) 8.5, the highest emission scenario for greenhouse gas concentrations presented in the {IPCC}'s {F}ifth {A}ssessment {R}eport ({AR}5), and the {IPCC} {S}ocioeconomic {S}hared {P}athway ({SSP}) 3, which is characterized by low economic development and a strong increase in the world population. {W}e first investigate the impact of climate change on regional skipjack abundance, catches and profits in three oceans ({A}tlantic, {I}ndian and {P}acific) in 2010, 2050 and 2095. {W}e then study the effects of three management strategies (maximum sustainable yield or {MSY}, maximum economic yield or {MEY}, and zero rent or {ZR}) on the future distribution of fishing fleets between oceans and on global economic rent. {O}ur model projections for 2050 and 2095 show an increase in global skipjack biomass compared to 2010 and major changes in its distribution, impacting local and regional fishing efforts. {T}he {P}acific {O}cean will continue to dominate the skipjack market. {I}n our modeling of management strategies, the currently predominant {MSY} strategy would have been unprofitable in 2010, due to a decreased catch per unit effort ({CPUE}). {I}n the future, however, technological developments should increase fishing efficiency and make {MSY} profitable. {I}n all the scenarios, a {MEY} strategy is more profitable than {MSY} but leads to the lowest catches and the highest prices. {T}his raises ethical questions in a world where food security may become a top priority. {I}n the scenarios where {MSY} generates an economic loss (e.g. 2010), a {ZR} strategy allows global stocks to be exploited at high but still profitable levels. {C}onversely, in the scenarios where {MSY} is profitable, (e.g. 2095) {ZR} leads to overfishing and smaller global catches. {W}e conclude that the most appropriate management strategy at any time is likely to change as environmental and socioeconomic conditions evolve. {T}he decision to follow one or other strategy is a complex one that must be regularly reviewed and updated.},
  keywords = {{C}limate change ; {S}kipjack tuna ; {B}ioeconomic model ; {F}ishery management ; {MSY} ; {MEY}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {E}nvironmental {C}hange-{H}uman and {P}olicy {D}imensions},
  volume = {41},
  numero = {},
  pages = {1--12},
  ISSN = {0959-3780},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.08.003},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010068764},
}