@article{fdi:010068370,
  title = {{F}easibility of achieving the 2025 {WHO} global tuberculosis targets in {S}outh {A}frica, {C}hina, and {I}ndia : a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models},
  author = {{H}ouben, {R}mgj and {M}enzies, {N}. {A}. and {S}umner, {T}. and {H}uynh, {G}. {H}. and {A}rinaminpathy, {N}. and {G}oldhaber-{F}iebert, {J}. {D}. and {L}in, {H}. {H}. and {W}u, {C}. {Y}. and {M}andal, {S}. and {P}andey, {S}. and {S}uen, {S}. {C}. and {B}endavid, {E}. and {A}zman, {A}. {S}. and {D}owdy, {D}. {W}. and {B}aca{\¨e}r, {N}icolas and {R}hines, {A}. {S}. and {F}eldman, {M}. {W}. and {H}andel, {A}. and {W}halen, {C}. {C}. and {C}hang, {S}. {T}. and {W}agner, {B}. {G}. and {E}ckhoff, {P}. {A}. and {T}rauer, {J}. {M}. and {D}enholm, {J}. {T}. and {M}c{B}ryde, {E}. {S}. and {C}ohen, {T}. and {S}alomon, {J}. {A}. and {P}retorius, {C}. and {L}alli, {M}. and {E}aton, {J}. {W}. and {B}occia, {D}. and {H}osseini, {M}. and {G}omez, {G}. {B}. and {S}ahu, {S}. and {D}aniels, {C}. and {D}itiu, {L}. and {C}hin, {D}. {P}. and {W}ang, {L}. {X}. and {C}hadha, {V}. {K}. and {R}ade, {K}. and {D}ewan, {P}. and {C}haralambous, {S}. and {G}rant, {A}. {D}. and {C}hurchyard, {G}. and {P}illay, {Y}. and {M}ametja, {L}. {D}. and {K}imerling, {M}. {E}. and {V}assall, {A}. and {W}hite, {R}. {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground {T}he post-2015 {E}nd {TB} {S}trategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. {W}e aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. {M}ethods 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in {C}hina, {I}ndia, and {S}outh {A}frica. {M}odels were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. {R}epresentatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. {F}indings {A}ggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 {E}nd {TB} {S}trategy targets in any country. {H}owever, the models projected that, in the {S}outh {A}frica national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. {F}or {I}ndia, and particularly for {C}hina, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3.4 million cases. {T}he advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. {I}nterpretation {M}ajor reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. {H}owever, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 {E}nd {TB} {S}trategy targets at country level.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DU} {SUD} ; {CHINE} ; {INDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{L}ancet {G}lobal {H}ealth},
  volume = {4},
  numero = {11},
  pages = {{E}806--{E}815},
  ISSN = {2214-109{X}},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1016/s2214-109x(16)30199-1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010068370},
}