@article{fdi:010068243,
  title = {{I}sland biodiversity hotspots are getting hotter : vulnerability of tree species to climate change in {N}ew {C}aledonia},
  author = {{P}outeau, {R}obin and {B}irnbaum, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}uture patterns of biodiversity have been extensively explored to design conservation strategies in large continental hotspots. {H}owever, little research has focused on island hotspots, although limited opportunities to migrate and the inherent characteristics of island species are likely to cause sensitivity to rapid environmental changes. {T}his study addresses the question of how climate change could affect species richness in {N}ew {C}aledonia, the world's smallest biodiversity hotspot. {A}n individual species distribution model was built for 469 native tree species and projected according to nine climate change scenarios. {R}esults indicated that the range size of 87-96% of species will have declined by 2070, 52-84% will lose at least half of their current range, and 0-15% will become extinct. {S}urprisingly, these predictions did not significantly exceed those for larger biodiversity hotspots. {U}nderlying reasons may include an oceanic buffering effect that attenuates increases in air temperature, and the complex topography that generates micro-refugia. {M}ajor losses in local species richness were predicted to occur on ultramafic substrates and at mid-elevation. {L}oss on ultramafic substrates may stem from the number of ultramafic-specialist species that will lack a suitable climate on this specific substrate, while substrate-ubiquitous species are more likely to find refugia. {L}oss at mid-elevation could mirror a shift in optimum temperature-precipitation value, whose role in shaping the current pattern of diversity may have been overestimated by the models. {H}opefully, these results will encourage further research to define the right mitigation and adaptation strategies on oceanic islands, where extinctions would contribute disproportionally to global biodiversity decline.},
  keywords = {{A}lpha diversity ; geographic range shift ; island conservation ; maximum entropy modeling ; tropical rain forest ; species extinctions ; {NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}iological {C}onservation},
  volume = {201},
  numero = {},
  pages = {111--119},
  ISSN = {0006-3207},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.biocon.2016.06.031},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010068243},
}