@article{fdi:010068091,
  title = {{E}valuation of {TIGGE} precipitation forecasts over {W}est {A}frica at intraseasonal timescale},
  author = {{L}ouvet, {S}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {J}anicot, {S}erge and {K}amsu-{T}amo, {P}. {H}. and {N}diaye, {O}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he study evaluated for the first time the ability of meteorological models of {TIGGE} to forecast the main features of the {W}est {A}frican monsoon rainfall. {S}even numerical models were retained over the 2008-2012 period and compared to satellite rainfall estimates. {W}e focused on the seasonal cycle and in particular on the onset of the rainy season and on the intra-seasonal variability that are both of high importance for agriculture, water management and health sectors. {W}e found that the seasonal latitudinal shift of the {ITCZ} is rather well predicted in terms of amplitude and timing by the different models although there is a systematic northward drift in the {ITCZ} latitude from the lead-times 1- to 10-day. {A}lthough the onset date of rainfall varies a lot according to the different definition in the literature, we also found good performance of {TIGGE} forecasts in predicting the onset date of the monsoon. {T}he analysis of intra-seasonal variability revealed that the skill of {TIGGE} forecasts is decreasing with the lead-time from 1-to 15-day and the performance of the ensemble mean of all models overcomes the one of any individual models. {O}verall criteria used in this study (intra-seasonal fluctuations, onset and seasonal cycles), the skill of {UKMO} and {ECMWF} models is better than any other model. {B}ased on such analysis it is likely than an ensemble mean based only on these two models would be more skillful than the ensemble mean based on the seven models. {TIGGE} forecasts represent a promising step towards the delivery of useful climate information to end-users of key sectors such as agriculture, water management, health and public safety.},
  keywords = {{W}est {A}frica ; {N}umerical prediction models ; {I}ntra-seasonal variability ; {O}nset ; {TIGGE} forecasts ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {AFRIQUE} {SUBSAHARIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {47},
  numero = {1-2},
  pages = {31--47},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-015-2820-x},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010068091},
}