@article{fdi:010067765,
  title = {{M}odel-based study of the role of rainfall and land use-land cover in the changes in the occurrence and intensity of {N}iger red floods in {N}iamey between 1953 and 2012},
  author = {{C}asse, {C}. and {G}osset, {M}arielle and {V}ischel, {T}. and {Q}uantin, {G}. and {T}animoun, {B}. {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}ince 1950, the {N}iger {R}iver basin has gone through three main climatic periods: a wet period (1950-1960), an extended drought (1970-1980) and since 1990 a recent partial recovery of annual rainfall. {H}ydrological changes co-occur with these rainfall fluctuations. {I}n most of the basin, the rainfall deficit caused an enhanced discharge deficit, but in the {S}ahelian region the runoff increased despite the rainfall deficit. {S}ince 2000 the {S}ahelian part of the {N}iger has been hit by an increase of flood hazards during the so-called red flood period. {I}n {N}iamey city, the highest river levels and the longest flooded period ever recorded occurred in 2003, 2010, 2012 and 2013, with heavy casualties and property damage. {T}he reasons for these changes, and the relative role of climate versus land use-land cover ({LULC}) changes are still debated and are investigated in this paper. {T}he evolution of the {N}iger red flood in {N}iamey from 1950 to 2012 is analysed based on long-term records of rainfall (three data sets based on in situ and/or satellite data) and discharge, and a hydrological model. {T}he model is first run with the present {LULC} conditions in order to analyse solely the effect of rainfall variability. {T}he impact of {LULC} and drainage area modification is investigated in a second step. {T}he simulations based on the current surface conditions are able to reproduce the observed trend in the red flood occurrence and intensity since the 1980s. {T}his has been verified with three independent rainfall data sets and implies that rainfall variability is the main driver for the red flood intensification observed over the last 30 years. {T}he simulation results since 1953 have revealed that {LULC} and drainage area changes need to be invoked to explain the changes over a 60-year period.},
  keywords = {{NIGER} ; {NIAMEY} ; {ZONE} {SAHELIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrology and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {20},
  numero = {7},
  pages = {2841--2859},
  ISSN = {1027-5606},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.5194/hess-20-2841-2016},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010067765},
}