@article{fdi:010067759,
  title = {{S}ub-seasonal behaviour of {A}sian summer monsoon under a changing climate : assessments using {CMIP}5 models},
  author = {{S}ooraj, {K}. {P}. and {T}erray, {P}ascal and {X}avier, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{N}umerous global warming studies show the anticipated increase in mean precipitation with the rising levels of carbon dioxide concentration. {H}owever, apart from the changes in mean precipitation, the finer details of daily precipitation distribution, such as its intensity and frequency (so called daily rainfall extremes), need to be accounted for while determining the impacts of climate changes in future precipitation regimes. {H}ere we examine the climate model projections from a large set of {C}oupled {M}odel {I}nter-comparison {P}roject 5 models, to assess these future aspects of rainfall distribution over {A}sian summer monsoon ({ASM}) region. {O}ur assessment unravels a north-south rainfall dipole pattern, with increased rainfall over {I}ndian subcontinent extending into the western {P}acific region (north {ASM} region, {NASM}) and decreased rainfall over equatorial oceanic convergence zone over eastern {I}ndian {O}cean region (south {ASM} region, {SASM}). {T}his robust future pattern is well conspicuous at both seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. {S}ubsequent analysis, using daily rainfall events defined using percentile thresholds, demonstrates that mean rainfall changes over {NASM} region are mainly associated with more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e. above 95th percentile). {T}he inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the {NASM} region. {R}ainfall suppression over {SASM} seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to {NASM}. {M}oisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmosphere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. {H}owever, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a strong spatial and rainfall category dependency, sometimes offsetting the effect of the water vapour increase. {A}dditionally, we found that the moisture convergence is mainly dominated by the climatological vertical motion acting on the humidity changes and the interplay between all these processes proves to play a pivotal role for regulating the intensities of various rainfall events in the two domains.},
  keywords = {{A}sian summer monsoon ; {P}recipitation characteristics ; {N}orth-south rainfall dipole pattern ; {M}oist mechanisms ; {D}aily rainfall extremes ; {INDE} ; {ASIE} {DU} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {46},
  numero = {11-12},
  pages = {4003--4025},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-015-2817-5},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010067759},
}