@article{fdi:010067736,
  title = {{T}rends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in northern tropical {A}frica (1961-2014) from observed and {PPCA}-reconstructed time series},
  author = {{M}oron, {V}. and {O}ueslati, {B}. and {P}ohl, {B}. and {R}ome, {S}. and {J}anicot, {S}erge},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}rends in daily maximum ({TX}) and minimum ({TN}) temperatures and indices of warm extremes are studied in tropical {N}orth {A}frica, west of the eastern {A}frican highlands, from 1961 to 2014. {T}he analysis is based on the concatenation and cross-checking of two observed databases. {D}ue to the large number of missing entries (similar to 25%), a statistical infilling using probabilistic principal component analysis was applied. {A}veraged over 90 stations, the linear trends of annual mean {TX} and {TN} equal respectively +0.021 degrees {C}/yr and +0.028 degrees {C}/yr. {T}he frequency of very hot days ({TX} > 35 degrees {C}) and tropical nights ({TN}> 20 degrees {C}), as well as the frequency of daily {TX} and {TN} above the 90th percentile (p90) ("warm days" and "warm nights"), roughly follows the variations of mean {TX} and {TN}, respectively. {H}eat spells of {TX} or {TN}> p90 are often short (usually <2-3 days), and the interannual variation of their mean duration is noisier than for the other indices. {N}evertheless, heat spells tend to last longer, with almost constantly positive anomalies since the mid-1990s. {T}he trends in {M}arch-{J}une, the warmest season across the {S}ahelian and {S}udanian belts, show similar variations as annual means. {O}verall, the local-scale warming in annual temperatures, and in {M}arch-{J}une, may be viewed merely as a simple shift of the probability distribution function of daily {TX} and {TN}. {T}he correlations between the thermal indices and the 2m temperatures suggest that the low-frequency (>8 years) variations may be viewed as a regional-scale fingerprint of the global warming, with largest correlations in the tropical {A}tlantic and {I}ndian basins, while the high-frequency (<8 years) variations should be mostly viewed as a delayed remote impact of {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) events over the region, with warm (cold) anomalies tending to follow warm (cold) {ENSO} events.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {G}eophysical {R}esearch : {A}tmospheres},
  volume = {121},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {5298--5319},
  ISSN = {2169-897{X}},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1002/2015jd024303},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010067736},
}