@incollection{fdi:010067385,
  title = {{A}ssessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on runoff in {W}estern {M}editerranean basins},
  author = {{R}uelland, {D}. and {H}ublart, {P}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his paper investigates the uncertainties linked to climate change impacts on runoff in four mesoscale basins (900 to 1800 km(2)) in the {M}editerranean region. {R}unoff simulations were based on a daily conceptual model including a snow module. {T}he model was calibrated and validated according to a differential split-sample test over a 20-year period and four competing criterions aiming to represent model structural uncertainty based on the concept of {P}areto optimality. {F}ive regional climate models ({RCM}s) from the {M}ed-{CORDEX} initiative were used to provide temperature and precipitation projections under {RCP}8.5 by 2050. {T}he {RCM}s' inability to realistically simulate reference climate (notably precipitation) led us to apply a monthly perturbation method in order to produce a range of climate scenarios. {T}he structural uncertainty bounds obtained from the hydrological simulations over the reference period showed that the model was able to correctly reproduce observed runoff despite contrasted hydrological conditions in (and in between) the basins. {C}limate projections were shown to be convergent regarding temperatures, which could increase by about + 1 to 3 degrees {C} on each basin. {I}n contrast, no clear trends in precipitation could be put in evidence, some {RCM}s leading to a mean annual precipitation decrease (up to 64 %), and others to an increase (up to 33 %). {T}he hydrological projections resulted from the combination of the hydrological simulation bounds with the range of climate projections. {D}espite the propagation of those uncertainties, the 2050 hydrological scenarios agreed on a significant runoff decrease (2-77 %) during spring on all basins. {O}n the opposite, no clear trend in runoff could be observed for the other seasons.},
  keywords = {{RUISSELLEMENT} ; {ECOULEMENT} ; {SIMULATION} ; {MODELE} {HYDROLOGIQUE} ; {MODELE} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {TEMPERATURE} ; {PRECIPITATION} ; {METHODOLOGIE} ; {BASSIN} {VERSANT} ; {CHANGEMENT} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {MAROC} ; {ESPAGNE} ; {FRANCE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {{H}ydrologic nonstationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future},
  volume = {371},
  numero = {},
  pages = {75--81},
  address = {{A}tlanta},
  publisher = {{AISH}},
  series = {{P}roceedings - {AISH}},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.5194/piahs-371-75-2015},
  ISSN = {2199-899{X}},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010067385},
}