@techreport{fdi:010067234,
  title = {{C}oconut synthesis report on gaps for priority collecting and conservation : technical report {LOA} 2014/44},
  author = {{C}oppens d'{E}eckenbrugge, {G}. and {W}olf, {V}. and {B}audoin, {L}. and {D}epraetere, {C}hristian},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ased on the information available from {COGENT}, important gaps persist in the affiliated germplasm collections, e.g. for large parts of {P}olynesia, {M}elanesia, {M}icronesia, {A}ustralia, {I}ndonesia, {M}alaysia, {I}ndia, {M}yanmar, {M}adagascar, {K}enya and {S}omalia, among regions where coconut is likely to be native. {SSR} marker data for 86 coconut populations were analyzed to study the distribution of genetic diversity, using {J}ost’s {J}1 index. {T}he {I}ndo-{P}acific region presents the highest diversity, with hotspots in {V}anuatu, {P}apua {N}ew {G}uinea, {S}outh {E}ast {A}sia, and {E}ast {A}frica. {A}tlantic shores, where the coconut was introduced in historical times, appear less diverse. {H}owever, this picture is incomplete, as many neighboring areas correspond to gaps in collections and genetic studies. {T}he potential impact of climate change on coconut distribution was anticipated for the year 2050, using three climate models ({BCC}-{CSM}1-1, {CCSM}4, and {H}ad{GEM}2-{ES}) and three gas emission/radiative forcing scenarios (rcp4.5, rcp6.0, and rcp8.5). {A}ll results converge in predicting a very strong increase of areas climatically suitable for the coconut, thus discarding a global negative impact of climate change per se. {T}his seems reassuring in terms of genetic erosion risk, as well as production. {H}owever, a few regions, including southeastern {I}ndia and {B}angladesh, would be negatively affected. {D}ue the eastward shift of favorable areas around the {B}ay of {B}engal, {B}angladesh could lose about half of his coconut production areas. {T}he 0.2-0.4m sea-level rise expectation for 2000-2050 might be doubled in case the {W}est {A}ntarctic {I}ce {S}heet has already been set into motion. {E}ven so, its impact on coastal coconut populations should be negligible for continents and large islands, where shoreline retreat should be modest, compared to the extension of climatically suitable areas. {T}he situation would be different for distant, small and low-lying islands, as well as delta areas, particularly in the {I}ndo-{P}acific region, where rising rates are up to thrice the global rate. {T}hus, there are severe threats on the {M}aldives, {L}accadive, and {M}ascarene archipelagos, and on the myriad of far {P}olynesian, {M}icronesian, and {M}elanesian islands, all regions hosting an important diversity of coconut germplasm, not well studied so far. {F}looding threats will increase on the shores of eastern {I}ndia and the {B}ay of {B}engal, increasing the pressure on coconut and people.},
  keywords = {{ZONE} {TROPICALE} ; {POLYNESIE} ; {ASIE} {DU} {SUD} {EST} ; {COLOMBIE} ; {EQUATEUR} ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{EST} ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN}},
  address = {{P}aris},
  publisher = {{B}iodiversa},
  series = {},
  pages = {21  multigr.},
  year = {2015},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010067234},
}