@article{fdi:010067162,
  title = {{E}valuation of the {AR}4 {CMIP}3 and the {AR}5 {CMIP}5 model and projections for precipitation in northeast {B}razil},
  author = {{A}lves, {J}.{M}.{B}. and {V}asconcelos, {F}.{C}.{J}r and {C}haves, {R}.{R}. and {S}ilva, {E}.{M}. and {S}ervain, {J}acques and {C}osta, {A}.{A}. and {S}ombra, {S}.{S}. and {B}arbosa, {A}.{C}.{B}. and {D}os {S}antos, {A}.{C}.{S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his article compares the sensitivity of {IPCC} {CMIP}3-{AR}4 and {CMIP}5-{AR}5 models used on the latest reports from the {I}ntergovernmental {P}anel on {C}limate {C}hange ({IPCC}) in representing the annual average variations (austral summer and autumn) on three regions in {N}ortheastern {B}razil ({NNEB}) for the periods 1979–2000 using the {CMAP} ({C}limatology {M}erged {A}nalysis of {P}recipitation) data as reference. {T}he three areas of {NNEB} chosen for this analysis were the semiarid, eastern, and southern regions. {T}he {EOF} analysis was performed to investigate how the coupled models resolve the temporal variability of the spatial modes in the {T}ropical {A}tlantic {S}ea {S}urface {T}emperature ({SST}), which drives the interannual variations of the rainfall in the {N}ortheastern {B}razil. {CMIP}3-{AR}4 and {CMIP}5-{AR}5 models presented a good representation of the annual cycle of precipitation. {R}esults from correlation and mean absolute error analysis indicate that both {CMIP}3 and {CMIP}5 models produce large errors and barely capture the interannual rainfall variance during austral summer and autumn in {N}ortheast {B}razil, this features is closely related to the poor representation of the modes of {SST} variability in the {T}ropical {A}tlantic {O}cean. {F}or the summer and autumn rainfall projections (2040–2070) in the semiarid region, there was no convergence between the {CMIP}3 and {CMIP}5 models. {D}uring the summer and autumn in the eastern sector, both the {CMIP}3 and {CMIP}5 models projected rainfall above the mean for the 2040–2070 period.},
  keywords = {{BRESIL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}rontiers in {E}arth {S}cience},
  volume = {4},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. no 44 [22 ]},
  ISSN = {2296-6463},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.3389/feart.2016.00044},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010067162},
}