@article{fdi:010066943,
  title = {{P}redicting global invasion risks : a management tool to prevent future introductions},
  author = {{F}letcher, {D}. {H}. and {G}illingham, {P}. {K}. and {B}ritton, {J}. {R}. and {B}lanchet, {S}. and {G}ozlan, {R}odolphe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}redicting regions at risk from introductions of non-native species and the subsequent invasions is a fundamental aspect of horizon scanning activities that enable the development of more effective preventative actions and planning of management measures. {T}he {A}sian cyprinid fish topmouth gudgeon {P}seudorasbora parva has proved highly invasive across {E}urope since its introduction in the 1960s. {I}n addition to direct negative impacts on native fish populations, {P}. parva has potential for further damage through transmission of an emergent infectious disease, known to cause mortality in other species. {T}o quantify its invasion risk, in regions where it has yet to be introduced, we trained 900 ecological niche models and constructed an {E}nsemble {M}odel predicting suitability, then integrated a proxy for introduction likelihood. {T}his revealed high potential for {P}. parva to invade regions well beyond its current invasive range. {T}hese included areas in all modelled continents, with several hotspots of climatic suitability and risk of introduction. {W}e believe that these methods are easily adapted for a variety of other invasive species and that such risk maps could be used by policy-makers and managers in hotspots to formulate increased surveillance and early-warning systems that aim to prevent introductions and subsequent invasions.},
  keywords = {{MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cientific {R}eports - {N}ature},
  volume = {6},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 26316 [8 p.]},
  ISSN = {2045-2322},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1038/srep26316},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010066943},
}