@article{fdi:010066769,
  title = {{T}rends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014 : a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants},
  author = {{D}i {C}esare, {M}. and {B}entham, {J}. and {S}tevens, {G}. {A}. and {Z}hou, {B}. and {D}anaei, {G}. and {L}u, {Y}. and {B}ixby, {H}. and {C}owan, {M}. {J}. and {R}iley, {L}. {M}. and {H}ajifathalian, {K}. and {F}ortunato, {L}. and {T}addei, {C}. and {B}ennett, {J}. {E}. and {I}keda, {N}. and {K}hang, {Y}. {H}. and {K}yobutungi, {C}. and {L}axmaiah, {A}. and {L}i, {Y}. {P}. and {L}in, {H}. {H}. and {M}iranda, {J}. {J}. and {M}ostafa, {A}. and {T}urley, {M}. {L}. and {P}aciorek, {C}. {J}. and {G}unter, {M}. and {E}zzati, {M}. and {D}elpeuch, {F}rancis and {M}artin-{P}r{\'e}vel, {Y}ves and {T}raissac, {P}ierre and et al.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground {U}nderweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. {W}e estimated trends in mean body-mass index ({BMI}), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of {BMI} categories for adults in all countries. {M}ethods {W}e analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. {W}e applied a {B}ayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean {BMI} and in the prevalences of {BMI} categories (<18.5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18.5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), = 40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. {W}e calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. {F}indings {W}e used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. {G}lobal age-standardised mean {BMI} increased from 21.7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m(2) (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m(2) (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m(2) (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. {R}egional mean {BMI}s in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m(2) in central {A}frica and south {A}sia to 29.2 kg/m(2) (28.6-29.8) in {P}olynesia and {M}icronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m(2) (21.4-22.3) in south {A}sia to 32.2 kg/m(2) (31.5-32.8) in {P}olynesia and {M}icronesia. {O}ver these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. {S}outh {A}sia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. {A}ge-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have {BMI} = 35 kg/m(2)). {G}lobally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women. {I}nterpretation {I}f post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. {R}ather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. {N}onetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south {A}sia.},
  keywords = {{MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{L}ancet},
  volume = {387},
  numero = {10026},
  pages = {1377--1396},
  ISSN = {0140-6736},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1016/{S}0140-6736(16)30054-{X}},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010066769},
}