@article{fdi:010066743,
  title = {{M}odel-based geostatistical mapping of the prevalence of {O}nchocerca volvulus in {W}est {A}frica},
  author = {{O}'{H}anlon, {S}. {J}. and {S}later, {H}. {C}. and {C}heke, {R}. {A}. and {B}oatin, {B}. {A}. and {C}offeng, {L}. {E}. and {P}ion, {S}{\'e}bastien and {B}oussinesq, {M}ichel and {Z}oure, {H}. {G}. {M}. and {S}tolk, {W}. {A}. and {B}asanez, {M}. {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground {T}he initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. {W}e present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former {O}nchocerciasis {C}ontrol {P}rogramme in {W}est {A}frica ({OCP}) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. {M}ethods and {F}indings {P}re-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the {OCP} epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. {T}hese 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a {B}ayesian model-based geostatistical ({B}-{MBG}) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in {W}est {A}frica prior to the commencement of the {OCP}. {U}ncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. {T}he mean {P}earson's correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. {W}ithin {OCP} boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2-90%) in 1975. {C}onclusions and {S}ignificance {T}his is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in {W}est {A}frica using {B}-{MBG}. {I}mportant environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. {R}esults may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. {T}hese methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}los {N}eglected {T}ropical {D}iseases},
  volume = {10},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {e0004328 [36 p.]},
  ISSN = {1935-2735},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0004328},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010066743},
}