@article{fdi:010066156,
  title = {{P}rojected increases in the annual flood pulse of the {W}estern {A}mazon},
  author = {{Z}ulkafli, {Z}. and {B}uytaert, {W}. and {M}anz, {B}. and {R}osas, {C}. {V}. and {W}illems, {P}. and {L}avado-{C}asimiro, {W}. and {G}uyot, {J}ean-{L}oup and {S}antini, {W}illiam},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he impact of a changing climate on the {A}mazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. {C}limate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the {W}estern {A}mazon. {N}ew projections from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}nter-comparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the {P}eruvian {A}mazon basin. {H}ere we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper {A}mazon river. {U}sing extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. {W}e show that the {RCP} 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). {T}hese findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the {S}pecial {R}eport on {E}missions {S}cenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater {A}mazonia.},
  keywords = {{P}eruvian {A}mazon ; hydrological extremes ; climate change impact ; {PEROU} ; {AMAZONE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {11},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {art. 014013 [10 p.]},
  ISSN = {1748-9326},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014013},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010066156},
}