@article{fdi:010066149,
  title = {{F}urther insights on the influence of the {I}ndian {O}cean dipole on the following year's {ENSO} from observations and {CMIP}5 models},
  author = {{J}ourdain, {N}. {C}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {I}zumo, {T}akeshi and {S}en {G}upta, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{R}ecent observational studies have suggested that negative and positive {I}ndian {O}cean dipole ({IOD}) events (n{IOD} and p{IOD}, respectively) favor a transition toward, respectively, {E}l {N}ino and {L}a {N}ina events one year later. {T}hese statistical inferences are however limited by the length and uncertainties in the observational records. {T}his paper compares observational datasets with twenty-one 155-yr historical simulations from phase 5 of {CMIP} ({CMIP}5) to assess {IOD} and {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) properties along with their synchronous and delayed relationships. {I}n the observations and most {CMIP}5 models, it is shown that {E}l {N}inos tend to be followed by {L}a {N}inas but not the opposite, that p{IOD}s co-occur more frequently with {E}l {N}inos than n{IOD}s with {L}a {N}inas, that n{IOD}s tend to be followed by {E}l {N}inos one year later less frequently than p{IOD}s by {L}a {N}inas, and that including an {IOD} index in a linear prediction based on the {P}acific warm water volume improves {ENSO} peak hindcasts at 14 months lead. {T}he {IOD}-{ENSO} delayed relationship partly results from a combination of {ENSO} intrinsic properties (e.g., the tendency for {E}l {N}inos to be followed by {L}a {N}inas) and from the synchronous {IOD}-{ENSO} relationship. {T}he results, however, reveal that this is not sufficient to explain the high prevalence of p{IOD}-{N}ina transitions in the observations and 75% of the {CMIP}5 models, and of n{IOD}-{N}ino transitions in 60% of {CMIP}5 models. {T}his suggests that the tendency of {IOD} to lead {ENSO} by one year should be explained by a physical mechanism that, however, remains elusive in the {CMIP}5 models. {T}he ability of many {CMIP}5 models to reproduce the delayed influence of the {IOD} on {ENSO} is nonetheless a strong incentive to explore extended-range dynamical forecasts of {ENSO}.},
  keywords = {{G}eographic location entity ; {I}ndian {O}cean ; {C}irculation ; {D}ynamics ; {ENSO} ; {P}hysical {M}eteorology and {C}limatology ; {C}limate prediction ; {M}athematical and statistical techniques ; {S}tatistical techniques ; {M}odels and modeling ; {C}limate models ; {V}ariability ; {T}ropical variability ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {29},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {637--658},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-15-0481.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010066149},
}