@article{fdi:010066101,
  title = {{Q}uantitative pathways for {N}ortheast {A}tlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological-economic and governance modelling scenarios},
  author = {{M}ullon, {C}hristian and {S}teinmetz, {F}abien and {M}erino, {G}. and {F}ernandes, {J}. {A}. and {C}heung, {W}. {W}. {L}. and {B}utenschon, {M}. and {B}arange, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{H}ere we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the {N}orth {A}tlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological-economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). {F}our contrasting scenarios ({B}aseline, {F}ortress, {G}lobal {C}ommons, {F}ree {T}rade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the {N}ortheast {A}tlantic basin by 2040. {R}esults indicate that in the time frame considered: ({I}) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social-ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the {N}orth {A}tlantic and the {E}uropean fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. {T}his study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.},
  keywords = {{A}tlantic {O}cean ; {C}limate change ; {C}limatic, bio-geochemical and ; bio-economic modelling ; {N}etwork modelling ; {E}conomic equilibrium ; {M}anagement scenarios ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD} ; {EUROPE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}cological {M}odelling},
  volume = {320},
  numero = {},
  pages = {273--291},
  ISSN = {0304-3800},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010066101},
}