@article{fdi:010065784,
  title = {{R}egion-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in {S}outheast {A}sia [plus {S}upporting information]},
  author = {{V}an {P}anhuis, {W}.{G}. and {C}hoisy, {M}arc and {X}iong, {X}. and {C}hok, {N}.{S}. and {A}karasewi, {P}. and {I}amsirithaworn, {S}. and {L}am, {S}.{K}. and {C}hong, {C}.{K}. and {L}am, {F}.{C}. and {P}hommasak, {B}. and {V}ongphrachanh, {P}. and {B}ouaphanh, {K}. and {R}ekol, {H}. and {N}guyen {T}ran {H}ien and {P}ham {Q}uang {T}hai and {T}ran {N}hu {D}uong and {C}huang, {J}.{H}. and {L}iu, {Y}.{L}. and {N}g, {L}.{C}. and {S}hi, {Y}. and {T}ayag, {E}.{A}. and {R}oque {J}r, {V}.{G}. and {L}ee {S}uy, {L}.{L}. and {J}arman, {R}.{G}. and {G}ibbons, {R}.{V}. and {V}elasco, {J}.{M}.{S}. and {Y}oon, {I}.{K}. and {B}urke, {D}.{S}. and {C}ummings, {D}.{A}.{T}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{D}engue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. {A}nnual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. {A} better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. {T}ime series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). {W}e collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in {S}outheast {A}sia, covering similar to 10(7) km(2). {W}e detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997-1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001-2002. {T}his synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997-1998 and the strongest {E}l {N}i{N}o episode of the century. {M}ultiannual dengue cycles (2-5 y) were highly coherent with the {O}ceanic {N}i{N}o {I}ndex, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. {W}e also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in {T}hailand, {L}aos, and the {P}hilippines that were dependent on temperature. {T}his study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across {S}outheast {A}sia.},
  keywords = {{ASIE} {DU} {SUD} {EST} ; {THAILANDE} ; {CAMBODGE} ; {LAOS} ; {VIET} {NAM} ; {MALAISIE} ; {SINGAPOUR} ; {PHILIPPINES} ; {TAIWAN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {N}ational {A}cademy of {S}ciences of the {U}nited {S}tates of {A}merica - {PNAS}},
  volume = {112},
  numero = {42},
  pages = {13069--13074 [+ supporting information : 12 p.]},
  ISSN = {1091-6490},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1501375112},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065784},
}