@article{fdi:010065676,
  title = {{E}stimating heat stress from climate-based indicators : present-day biases and future spreads in the {CMIP}5 global climate model ensemble},
  author = {{Z}hao, {Y}. and {D}ucharne, {A}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {B}raconnot, {P}. and {V}autard, {R}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he increased exposure of human populations to heat stress is one of the likely consequences of global warming, and it has detrimental effects on health and labor capacity. {H}ere, we consider the evolution of heat stress under climate change using 21 general circulation models ({GCM}s). {T}hree heat stress indicators, based on both temperature and humidity conditions, are used to investigate present-day model biases and spreads in future climate projections. {P}resent day estimates of heat stress indicators from observational data shows that humid tropical areas tend to experience more frequent heat stress than other regions do, with a total frequency of heat stress 250-300 d yr(-1). {T}he most severe heat stress is found in the {S}ahel and south {I}ndia. {P}resent-day {GCM} simulations tend to underestimate heat stress over the tropics due to dry and cold model biases. {T}he model based estimates are in better agreement with observation in mid to high latitudes, but this is due to compensating errors in humidity and temperature. {T}he severity of heat stress is projected to increase by the end of the century under climate change scenario {RCP}8.5, reaching unprecedented levels in some regions compared with observations. {A}n analysis of the different factors contributing to the total spread of projected heat stress shows that spread is primarily driven by the choice of {GCM}s rather than the choice of indicators, even when the simulated indicators are bias-corrected. {T}his supports the utility of the multi-model ensemble approach to assess the impacts of climate change on heat stress.},
  keywords = {{SAHEL} ; {INDE} ; {MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {10},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {12  [en ligne]},
  ISSN = {1748-9326},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084013},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065676},
}