@article{fdi:010065592,
  title = {{T}he difficult task of evaluating {MDG}-4 : monitoring trends in child survival in {A}frica},
  author = {{G}arenne, {M}ichel},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground. {T}he fourth {M}illennium {D}evelopment {G}oal ({MDG}-4) proposed to reduce under-5 mortality rates ({U}5{MR}) by two thirds within 25 years. {T}he article discusses changes in {U}5{MR} for 35 sub-{S}aharan {A}frican countries, for which {DHS} surveys are available. {M}ethods. {A}nalysis of {DHS} data, reconstruction of time series of {U}5{MR}, and comparison with other series. {F}indings. {F}ew countries were able to achieve {MDG}-4 from 1985 to 2010, and the few who did seem to have achieved the goal apparently either because of abnormally high baseline or a surprisingly low endpoint. {I}f all countries experienced significant mortality decline, only a minority had a steady decline, and many had periods of rising and falling mortality, for a variety of reasons. {I}nterpretation. {D}iscussion focuses on data quality, on methods for estimating levels and trends in under-5 mortality, and on the circumstances explaining rises and falls in mortality. {MDG}-4 appeared overambitious for {A}frica, given high mortality levels, political instability, economic crises, and above all emerging diseases, in particular {HIV}/{AIDS}. {T}he last 10 years from 2000 to 2010 appeared as the most favorable period since 1960 in {A}frican countries, with the exception of countries with widespread {HIV}/{AIDS}.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {SUBSAHARIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {P}ediatric {H}ealth},
  volume = {2},
  numero = {},
  pages = {8  [en ligne]},
  ISSN = {2333-794{X}},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1177/2333794{X}15584622},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065592},
}