%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Mangiarotti, Sylvain
%T Low dimensional chaotic models for the plague epidemic in Bombay (1896-1911)
%D 2015
%L fdi:010065521
%G ENG
%J Chaos Solitons and Fractals
%@ 0960-0779
%K Chaotic system ; Global modeling ; Epizootic ; Plague ; Rats ; Fleas
%K INDE ; BOMBAY
%M ISI:000366204500021
%N A
%P 184-196
%R 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.09.014
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065521
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2015/12/010065521.pdf
%V 81
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X A plague epidemic broke out in Bombay in 1896 and became endemic. From 1905 to 1911, the epidemic was closely monitored by an Advisory Committee appointed to investigate the causes of the disease in any way. An impressive quantity of information was gathered, analyzed and published. Published data include records of the number of people who died from plague, and of the two main populations of rodents which were infected by plague in Bombay city. In the present paper, these data are revisited using a global modeling technique. This technique is applied to both single and multivariate observational time series. Several models are obtained for which a chaotic behavior can be observed. Obtaining such models proves that the dynamics of plague can be approximated by low-dimensional deterministic systems that can produce chaos. The multivariate models give a strong argument for interactive couplings between the epidemic and the epizootics of the two main species of rat. An interpretation of this coupling is given.
%$ 020 ; 050 ; 052 ; 080