@article{fdi:010065521,
  title = {{L}ow dimensional chaotic models for the plague epidemic in {B}ombay (1896-1911)},
  author = {{M}angiarotti, {S}ylvain},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A} plague epidemic broke out in {B}ombay in 1896 and became endemic. {F}rom 1905 to 1911, the epidemic was closely monitored by an {A}dvisory {C}ommittee appointed to investigate the causes of the disease in any way. {A}n impressive quantity of information was gathered, analyzed and published. {P}ublished data include records of the number of people who died from plague, and of the two main populations of rodents which were infected by plague in {B}ombay city. {I}n the present paper, these data are revisited using a global modeling technique. {T}his technique is applied to both single and multivariate observational time series. {S}everal models are obtained for which a chaotic behavior can be observed. {O}btaining such models proves that the dynamics of plague can be approximated by low-dimensional deterministic systems that can produce chaos. {T}he multivariate models give a strong argument for interactive couplings between the epidemic and the epizootics of the two main species of rat. {A}n interpretation of this coupling is given.},
  keywords = {{C}haotic system ; {G}lobal modeling ; {E}pizootic ; {P}lague ; {R}ats ; {F}leas ; {INDE} ; {BOMBAY}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}haos {S}olitons and {F}ractals},
  volume = {81},
  numero = {{A}},
  pages = {184--196},
  ISSN = {0960-0779},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.chaos.2015.09.014},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065521},
}