@article{fdi:010065520,
  title = {{D}rivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models},
  author = {{L}aufkotter, {C}. and {V}ogt, {M}. and {G}ruber, {N}. and {A}ita-{N}oguchi, {M}. and {A}umont, {O}livier and {B}opp, {L}. and {B}uitenhuis, {E}. and {D}oney, {S}. {C}. and {D}unne, {J}. and {H}ashioka, {T}. and {H}auck, {J}. and {H}irata, {T}. and {J}ohn, {J}. and {L}e {Q}u{\'e}r{\'e}, {C}. and {L}ima, {I}. {D}. and {N}akano, {H}. and {S}eferian, {R}. and {T}otterdell, {I}. and {V}ichi, {M}. and {V}olker, {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}ast model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production ({NPP}) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. {H}ere, we analyze model-simulated changes in {NPP} for the 21st century under {IPCC}'s high-emission scenario {RCP}8.5. {W}e use a suite of nine coupled carbon-climate {E}arth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. {G}lobally, {NPP} decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. {T}he largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30 degrees {S} and 30 degrees {N}), with individual models simulating relative changes between -25 and +40 %. {O}f the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in {NPP} in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. {I}n the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. {H}owever, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce {NPP} despite higher growth rates. {O}ne model projects a strong increase in {NPP} in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while {NPP} in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. {W}hile models consistently project increases {NPP} in the {S}outhern {O}cean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. {I}n most models, this increase in {NPP} is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. {O}verall, current projections of future changes in global marine {NPP} are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}iogeosciences},
  volume = {12},
  numero = {23},
  pages = {6955--6984},
  ISSN = {1726-4170},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065520},
}