%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Paradis, Emmanuel
%T Random phylogenies and the distribution of branching times
%D 2015
%L fdi:010065494
%G ENG
%J Journal of Theoretical Biology
%@ 0022-5193
%K Diversity ; Extinction ; LTT plot ; Speciation
%M ISI:000365245800005
%P 39-45
%R 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.09.005
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065494
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2015/12/010065494.pdf
%V 387
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X Phylogenetic trees reconstructed without fossils have become an important source of information to study evolutionary processes. A widely used method to describe patterns of phylogenetic diversification is known as the lineages-through-time (LTT) plot. Recently, it has been shown that it is possible to predict the distribution of the branching times of a phylogeny, thus making possible to derive a theoretical LTT curve conditioned on diversification parameters. Here, I review some aspects related to this prediction showing how to derive it for any time-dependent model of diversification, as well as calculating a prediction interval around a theoretical LTT curve. The accuracy of the prediction interval was assessed with simulations using fixed or random tree sizes under constant-rate models as well as two models of time-dependent diversification. The prediction intervals were relatively narrower and more accurate for larger trees. The features of this approach are discussed as well as its potential applications.
%$ 020