@article{fdi:010065458,
  title = {{M}ultiple equilibria as a possible mechanism for decadal variability in the north {A}tlantic ocean},
  author = {{B}orn, {A}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {S}tocker, {T}. {F}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{D}ecadal climate variability in the {N}orth {A}tlantic has received increased attention in recent years, because modeling results suggest predictability of heat content and circulation indices several years ahead. {H}owever, determining the applicability of these results in the real world is challenging because of an incomplete understanding of the underlying mechanisms. {H}ere, the authors show that recent attempts to reconstruct the decadal variations in one of the dominant circulation systems of the region, the subpolar gyre ({SPG}), are not always consistent. {A} coherent picture is partly recovered by a simple conceptual model solely forced by reanalyzed surface air temperatures. {T}his confirms that surface heat flux indeed plays a leading role for this type of variability, as has been suggested in previous studies. {T}he results further suggest that large variations in the {SPG} correspond to the crossing of a bifurcation point that is predicted from idealized experiments and an analytical solution of the model used herein. {P}erformance of this conceptual model is tested against a statistical stochastic model. {H}ysteresis and the existence of two stable modes of the {SPG} circulation shape its response to forcing by atmospheric temperatures. {T}he identification of the essential dynamics and the reduction to a minimal model of {SPG} variability provide a quantifiable basis and a framework for future studies on decadal climate variability and predictability.},
  keywords = {{G}eographic location entity ; {N}orth {A}tlantic {O}cean ; {C}irculation ; {D}ynamics ; {O}cean dynamics ; {A}tm ; {O}cean {S}tructure ; {P}henomena ; {G}yres ; {F}orecasting ; {C}limate prediction ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {28},
  numero = {22},
  pages = {8907--8922},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-14-00813.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065458},
}