@article{fdi:010065428,
  title = {{M}editerranean {S}ea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios},
  author = {{A}dloff, {F}. and {S}omot, {S}. and {S}evault, {F}. and {J}orda, {G}. and {A}znar, {R}. and {D}eque, {M}. and {H}errmann, {M}arine and {M}arcos, {M}. and {D}ubois, {C}. and {P}adorno, {E}. and {A}lvarez-{F}anjul, {E}. and {G}omis, {D}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {M}editerranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. {M}editerranean {S}ea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the {A}tlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. {T}o assess and quantify the sensitivity of the {M}editerranean {S}ea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model {NEMOMED}8 set up for the {M}editerranean {S}ea. {T}he model is forced by air-sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model {ARPEGE}-{C}limate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. {H}istorical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961-2000 were run to obtain a reference state. {F}rom this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001-2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the {S}pecial {R}eport on {E}missions {S}cenarios. {F}or the {A}2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-{A}tlantic water hydrography and air-sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. {I}n two additional simulations ({A}1{B}, {B}1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. {O}ur 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the {M}editerranean. {F}or the 2070-2099 period compared to 1961-1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 {A} degrees {C} and the {SSS} anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. {I}n most of the cases, we found that the future {M}editerranean thermohaline circulation ({MTHC}) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern {M}editerranean {T}ransient. {H}owever, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. {O}ur numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-{A}tlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in {G}eneral {C}irculation {M}odels, has the largest impact on the evolution of the {M}editerranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. {T}he choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. {T}he state of the {MTHC} during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. {B}esides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the {I}onian {S}ea and the {B}alearic region. {F}inally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990), mainly depending on the {A}tlantic forcing.},
  keywords = {{M}editerranean {S}ea ; {C}limate change ; {B}oundary conditions ; {MEDITERRANEE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {45},
  numero = {9-10},
  pages = {2775--2802},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-015-2507-3},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065428},
}