@article{fdi:010065409,
  title = {{E}valuating long-term effectiveness of sleeping sickness control measures in {G}uinea},
  author = {{P}andey, {A}. and {A}tkins, {K}. {E}. and {B}ucheton, {B}runo and {C}amara, {M}. and {A}ksoy, {S}. and {G}alvani, {A}. {P}. and {N}deffo-{M}bah, {M}. {L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {H}uman {A}frican {T}rypanosomiasis threatens human health across {A}frica. {T}he subspecies {T}.b. gambiense is responsible for the vast majority of reported {HAT} cases. {O}ver the past decade, expanded control efforts accomplished a substantial reduction in {HAT} transmission, spurring the {WHO} to include {G}ambian {HAT} on its roadmap for 2020 elimination. {T}o inform the implementation of this elimination goal, we evaluated the likelihood that current control interventions will achieve the 2020 target in {B}offa prefecture in {G}uinea, which has one of the highest prevalences for {HAT} in the country, and where vector control measures have been implemented in combination with the traditional screen and treat strategy. {M}ethods: {W}e developed a three-species mathematical model of {HAT} and used a {B}ayesian melding approach to calibrate the model to epidemiological and entomological data from {B}offa. {F}rom the calibrated model, we generated the probabilistic predictions regarding the likelihood that the current {HAT} control programs could achieve elimination by 2020 in {B}offa. {R}esults: {O}ur model projections indicate that if annual vector control is implemented in combination with annual or biennial active case detection and treatment, the probability of eliminating {HAT} as public health problem in {B}offa by 2020 is over 90%. {A}nnual implementation of vector control alone has a significant impact but a decreased chance of reaching the objective (77%). {H}owever, if the ongoing control efforts are interrupted, {HAT} will continue to remain a public health problem. {I}n the presence of a non-human animal transmission reservoir, intervention strategies must be maintained at high coverage, even after 2020 elimination, to prevent {HAT} reemerging as a public health problem. {C}onclusions: {C}omplementing active screening and treatment with vector control has the potential to achieve the elimination target before 2020 in the {B}offa focus. {H}owever, surveillance must continue after elimination to prevent reemergence.},
  keywords = {{H}uman {A}frican trypanosomiasis ; {A}ctive surveillance ; {V}ector control ; {D}isease elimination ; {WHO} 2020 goals ; {T}setse target ; {M}athematical model ; {GUINEE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}arasites and {V}ectors},
  volume = {8},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 550 [10 p.]},
  ISSN = {1756-3305},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1186/s13071-015-1121-x},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065409},
}