@article{fdi:010065322,
  title = {{A}ssessment of epidemic projections using recent {HIV} survey data in {S}outh {A}frica : a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of {HIV} epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era},
  author = {{E}aton, {J}. {W}. and {B}aca{\¨e}r, {N}icolas and {B}ershteyn, {A}. and {C}ambiano, {V}. and {C}ori, {A}. and {D}orrington, {R}. {E}. and {F}raser, {C}. and {G}opalappa, {C}. and {H}ontelez, {J}. {A}. {C}. and {J}ohnson, {L}. {F}. and {K}lein, {D}. {J}. and {P}hillips, {A}. {N}. and {P}retorius, {C}. and {S}tover, {J}. and {R}ehle, {T}. {M}. and {H}allett, {T}. {B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground {M}athematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control {HIV} and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. {W}e aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in {S}outh {A}frica in 2012. {M}ethods {W}e compared ten model projections of {HIV} prevalence, {HIV} incidence, and antiretroviral therapy ({ART}) coverage for {S}outh {A}frica with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. {M}odel projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. {W}e compared adult (age 15-49 years) {HIV} prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and {ART} coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. {F}indings {A}ll models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18.8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% {CI} (17.5-20.3). {E}ight models projected that {HIV} prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16.9% in 2008 to 18.8% in 2012 (difference 1.9, 95% {CI} -0.1 to 3.9). {M}odel projections accurately predicted the 1.6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% {CI} -0.3 to 3.5) in young adults aged 15-24 years, and the 2.2 percentage point (0.5 to 3.9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. {M}odels accurately represented the number of adults on {ART} in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% {CI} of 1.54-2.12 million. {H}owever, the differential {ART} coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on {ART} were lower than the survey estimate of 2.22 (95% {CI} 1.73-2.71). {I}nterpretation {P}rojections for overall declines in {HIV} epidemics during the {ART} era might have been optimistic. {F}uture treatment and {HIV} prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. {A}dditional data about service provision for {HIV} care could help inform more accurate projections.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DU} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{L}ancet {G}lobal {H}ealth},
  volume = {3},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {{E}598--{E}608},
  ISSN = {2214-109{X}},
  year = {2015},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010065322},
}