@article{fdi:010064960,
  title = {{M}odelling glacier change in the {E}verest region, {N}epal {H}imalaya},
  author = {{S}hea, {J}. {M}. and {I}mmerzeel, {W}. {W}. and {W}agnon, {P}atrick and {V}incent, {C}. and {B}ajracharya, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the {E}verest region of {N}epal to climate change. {H}ighr-esolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. {T}he model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. {W}e integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. {B}etween 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the {D}udh {K}oshi basin is -6.4 +/- 1.5 km(3), a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. {M}odelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is 101.0 +/- 11.4 km(2), a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. {T}he modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. {A}pplication of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the {CMIP}5 {RCP}4.5 and {RCP}8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the {E}verest region through the 21st century.},
  keywords = {{NEPAL} ; {HIMALAYA} ; {EVEREST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}ryosphere},
  volume = {9},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {1105--1128},
  ISSN = {1994-0416},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064960},
}