@article{fdi:010064727,
  title = {{P}redicting the impact of temperature change on the future distribution of maize stem borers and their natural enemies along east african mountain gradients using phenology models},
  author = {{M}walusepo, {S}. and {T}onnang, {H}. {E}. {Z}. and {M}assawe, {E}. {S}. and {O}kuku, {G}. {O}. and {K}hadioli, {N}. and {J}ohansson, {T}. and {C}alatayud, {P}aul-{A}ndr{\'e} and {L}e {R}ü, {B}runo},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{L}epidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in {E}ast {A}frica. {T}he objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid {C}hilo partellus, the noctuid {B}usseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids {C}otesia flavipes and {C}otesia sesamiae at local scale along {K}ilimanjaro and {T}aita {H}ills gradients in {T}anzania and {K}enya, respectively. {T}emperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. {T}he three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the {AFRICLIM} database. {T}he calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the {I}nsect {L}ife {C}ycle {M}odeling ({ILCYM}) software. {T}hin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. {O}ur study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. {R}esults based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two {E}ast {A}frican mountain gradients studied. {T}his was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species {C}. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. {T}he predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{EST} ; {TANZANIE} ; {KENYA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}los {O}ne},
  volume = {10},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {e0130427 [23 p.]},
  ISSN = {1932-6203},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0130427},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064727},
}