@article{fdi:010064677,
  title = {{R}educing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modelling in the semi-arid {A}ndes},
  author = {{H}ublart, {P}. and {R}uelland, {D}. and {D}ezetter, {A}lain and {J}ourde, {H}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. {T}his study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modelling of a mesoscale {A}ndean catchment (1515 km(2)) over a 30-year period (1982-2011). {T}he modelling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behaviour: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. {E}ach of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modelling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. {T}hese structures were calibrated using the concept of {P}areto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. {T}he results were analyzed in the four-dimensional (4-{D}) space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. {A} filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. {T}his led to retain eight model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modelling framework. {F}uture work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.},
  keywords = {{CHILI} ; {ANDES} ; {ZONE} {SEMIARIDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrology and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {19},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {2295--2314},
  ISSN = {1027-5606},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.5194/hess-19-2295-2015},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064677},
}