@article{fdi:010064644,
  title = {{A} generic weather-driven model to predict mosquito population dynamics applied to species of {A}nopheles, {C}ulex and {A}edes genera of southern {F}rance},
  author = {{E}zanno, {P}. and {A}ubry-{K}ientz, {M}. and {A}rnoux, {S}. and {C}ailly, {P}. and {L}'{A}mbert, {G}. and {T}oty, {C}{\'e}line and {B}alenghien, {T}. and {T}ran, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}n accurate understanding and prediction of mosquito population dynamics are needed to identify areas where there is a high risk of mosquito-borne disease spread and persistence. {S}imulation tools are relevant for supporting decision-makers in the surveillance of vector populations, as models of vector population dynamics provide predictions of the greatest risk periods for vector abundance, which can be particularly helpful in areas with a highly variable environment. {W}e present a generic weather-driven model of mosquito population dynamics, which was applied to one species of each of the genera {A}nopheles, {C}ulex, and {A}edes, located in the same area and thus affected by similar weather conditions. {T}he predicted population dynamics of {A}nopheles hyrcanus, {C}ulex pipiens, and {A}edes caspius were not similar. {A}n. hyrcanus was abundant in late summer. {C}x. pipiens was less abundant but throughout the summer. {T}he abundance of both species showed a single large peak with few variations between years. {T}he population dynamics of {A}e. caspius showed large intra- and inter-annual variations due to pulsed egg hatching. {P}redictions of the model were compared to longitudinal data on host-seeking adult females. {D}ata were previously obtained using {CDC}-light traps baited with carbon dioxide dry ice in 2005 at two sites ({M}arais du {V}iguerat and {T}our {C}arbonniere) in a favourable temperate wetland of southern {F}rance ({C}amargue). {T}he observed and predicted periods of maximal abundance for {A}n. hyrcanus and {C}x. pipiens tallied very well. {P}earson's coefficients for these two species were over 75% for both species. {T}he model also reproduced the major trends in the intra-annual fluctuations of {A}e. caspius population dynamics, with peaks occurring in early summer and following the autumn rainfall events. {F}ew individuals of this species were trapped so the comparison of predicted and observed dynamics was not relevant. {A} global sensitivity analysis of the species-specific models enabled us to identify the parameters most influencing the maximal abundance of mosquitoes. {T}hese key parameters were almost similar between species, but not with the same contributions. {T}he emergence of adult mosquitoes was identified as a key process in the population dynamics of all of the three species considered here. {P}arameters associated with adult emergence therefore need to be precisely known to achieve accurate predictions. {O}ur model is a flexible and efficient tool that predicts mosquito abundance based on local environmental factors. {I}t is useful to and already used by a mosquito surveillance manager in {F}rance.},
  keywords = {{M}athematical modelling ; {P}opulation dynamics ; {M}osquito ; {S}easonality ; {S}ensitivity analysis ; {S}urveillance ; {FRANCE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}reventive {V}eterinary {M}edicine},
  volume = {120},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {39--50},
  ISSN = {0167-5877},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.12.018},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064644},
}