@article{fdi:010064625,
  title = {{G}lobal warming and the weakening of the {A}sian summer monsoon circulation : assessments from the {CMIP}5 models},
  author = {{S}ooraj, {K}. {P}. and {T}erray, {P}ascal and {M}ujumdar, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he evolution of the {A}sian summer monsoon ({ASM}) in a global warming environment is a serious scientific and socio-economic concern since many recent studies have demonstrated the weakening nature of large-scale tropical circulation under anthropogenic forcing. {B}ut, how such processes affect the {ASM} circulation and rainfall is still a matter of debate. {T}his study examines the climate model projections from a selected set of {C}oupled {M}odel {I}nter-comparison {P}roject 5 ({CMIP}5) models to provide a unified perspective on the future {ASM} response. {T}he results indicate a robust reduction in the large-scale meridional gradient of temperature ({MGT}) at upper levels (200 h{P}a) over the {ASM} region, associated with enhanced ascendance and deep tropospheric heating over the equatorial {P}acific in the future climate. {T}he differential heating in the upper troposphere, with concomitant increase (decrease) in atmospheric stability ({MGT}), weakens the {ASM} circulation, promotes a northward shift of the monsoon circulation and a widening of the local {H}adley cell in the eastern {I}ndian sector. {A}n examination of the water vapour budget indicates the competing effects of the thermodynamic (moisture convergence) and dynamics processes (monsoon circulation) on future {ASM} rainfall changes. {T}he former component wins out over the later one and leads to the intensification of {I}ndian monsoon rainfall in the {CMIP}5 projections. {H}owever, the diagnostics further show a considerable offset due to the dynamic component.},
  keywords = {{A}sian summer monsoon ; {M}eridional gradient in deep tropospheric heating ; {A}tmospheric stability ; {T}hermodynamic and dynamic components ; {ASIE} ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {45},
  numero = {1-2},
  pages = {233--252},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064625},
}