@article{fdi:010064226,
  title = {{R}eal-time eruption forecasting using the material {F}ailure {F}orecast {M}ethod with a {B}ayesian approach},
  author = {{B}oue, {A}. and {L}esage, {P}. and {C}ortes, {G}. and {V}alette, {B}ernard and {R}eyes-{D}avila, {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}any attempts for deterministic forecasting of eruptions and landslides have been performed using the material {F}ailure {F}orecast {M}ethod ({FFM}). {T}his method consists in adjusting an empirical power law on precursory patterns of seismicity or deformation. {U}ntil now, most of the studies have presented hindsight forecasts based on complete time series of precursors and do not evaluate the ability of the method for carrying out real-time forecasting with partial precursory sequences. {I}n this study, we present a rigorous approach of the {FFM} designed for real-time applications on volcano-seismic precursors. {W}e use a {B}ayesian approach based on the {FFM} theory and an automatic classification of seismic events. {T}he probability distributions of the data deduced from the performance of this classification are used as input. {A}s output, it provides the probability of the forecast time at each observation time before the eruption. {T}he spread of the a posteriori probability density function of the prediction time and its stability with respect to the observation time are used as criteria to evaluate the reliability of the forecast. {W}e test the method on precursory accelerations of long-period seismicity prior to vulcanian explosions at {V}olcan de {C}olima ({M}exico). {F}or explosions preceded by a single phase of seismic acceleration, we obtain accurate and reliable forecasts using approximately 80% of the whole precursory sequence. {I}t is, however, more difficult to apply the method to multiple acceleration patterns.},
  keywords = {eruption forecasting ; volcano-seismology ; time series analysis ; inverse theory ; volcano monitoring ; explosive volcanism ; {MEXIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {G}eophysical {R}esearch. {S}olid {E}arth},
  volume = {120},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {2143--2161},
  ISSN = {2169-9313},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1002/2014jb011637},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064226},
}