@article{fdi:010064113,
  title = {{V}ietnam's forest transition in retrospect : demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for {REDD}},
  author = {{A}nkersen, {J}. and {G}rogan, {K}. and {M}ertz, {O}. and {F}ensholt, {R}. and {C}astella, {J}ean-{C}hristophe and {L}estrelin, {G}uillaume and {N}guyen, {D}. {T}. and {D}anielsen, {F}. and {B}rofeldt, {S}. and {R}asmussen, {K}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{O}ne of the prerequisites of the {REDD}+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual ({BAU}) scenarios for change in forest cover. {T}his would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. {H}owever, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. {H}ere we predict and validate such {BAU} scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in {N}orth {C}entral {V}ietnam. {W}ith the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. {W}e analyzed {L}andsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. {W}e compared {L}andsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the {L}andsat analysis. {T}he {BAU} scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. {T}his suggests that hypothetical {REDD}+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant {BAU} scenarios.},
  keywords = {{D}eforestation ; {R}eforestation ; {F}orest degradation ; {REDD} ; {V}ietnam ; {L}and use change ; {S}hifting cultivation ; {VIET} {NAM}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {M}anagement},
  volume = {55},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {1080--1092},
  ISSN = {0364-152{X}},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00267-015-0443-y},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064113},
}