@article{fdi:010064051,
  title = {{I}ncreased frequency of extreme {L}a {N}ina events under greenhouse warming},
  author = {{C}ai, {W}. {J}. and {W}ang, {G}. {J}. and {S}antoso, {A}. and {M}c{P}haden, {M}. {J}. and {W}u, {L}. {X}. and {J}in, {F}. {F}. and {T}immermann, {A}. and {C}ollins, {M}. and {V}ecchi, {G}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {E}ngland, {M}. {H}. and {D}ommenget, {D}. and {T}akahashi, {K}. and {G}uilyardi, {E}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {E}l {N}ino/{S}outhern {O}scillation is {E}arth's most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between {E}l {N}ino and {L}a {N}ina, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture(1-5). {T}he 1998-1999 extreme {L}a {N}ina event that followed the 1997-1998 extreme {E}l {N}ino event(6) switched extreme {E}l {N}ino-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western {P}acific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern {U}nited {S}tates(4,7). {D}uring extreme {L}a {N}ina events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central {P}acific(8,9), creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the {M}aritime continent to the central {P}acific. {R}ecent studies have revealed robust changes in {E}l {N}ino characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming(10-12), but how {L}a {N}ina will change remains unclear. {H}ere we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme {L}a {N}ina events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. {T}his occurs because projected faster mean warming of the {M}aritime continent than the central {P}acific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme {E}l {N}ino events are conducive to development of the extreme {L}a {N}ina events. {A}pproximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme {E}l {N}ino events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} {CENTRE} ; {ZONE} {EQUATORIALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {C}limate {C}hange},
  volume = {5},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {132--137},
  ISSN = {1758-678{X}},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2492},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064051},
}