@article{fdi:010064045,
  title = {{H}istorical reconstruction and 2050 projections of water demand under anthropogenic and climate changes in two contrasted {M}editerranean catchments},
  author = {{G}rouillet, {B}. and {F}abre, {J}. and {R}uelland, {D}. and {D}ezetter, {A}lain},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his paper presents an integrative conceptual framework developed to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of water demand caused by human influences and climate change, at the river basin management scale. {T}he past dynamics of urban, agricultural, and industrial components of water demand were simulated at a 10-day time step for the period between 1970 and 2009. {T}he same model was used to forecast water demand at the 2050 horizon under water use scenarios based on local projections, trends observed in the past, and climate scenarios. {C}limate prediction uncertainties were taken into account using a wide range of climate scenarios downscaled from 9 {IPCC}-{AR}5 {GCM}s under {RCP}8.5. {T}o test how widely and easily our approach can be applied, we tested it in two river basins facing different kinds of human pressure and different water management issues: the {H}erault basin (2500 km(2)) in {F}rance and the {E}bro basin (85,000 km(2)) in {S}pain. {R}esults showed that water demand has increased significantly in the last 40 years in both the {H}erault basin (+29%) and the {E}bro basin (+57%), and revealed spatially heterogeneous variations in water demand. {I}dentifying the main drivers of water demand and their past dynamics enabled us to build water use trend scenarios at the 2050 horizon. {S}imulations of water demand under anthropogenic and climate trends in 2050 revealed a significant increase in total water demand in both basins ({H}erault +38% to +50%, {E}bro +35% to +58%). {T}hese projections show that changes in the pressure of human activities will influence variations in water demand more than climate change. {T}he broader aim of this research is to assess the balance between water demand and supply through a comprehensive modeling framework to evaluate the sustainability of water uses in a changing environment.},
  keywords = {{W}ater demand ; {A}nthropogenic changes ; {C}limate change impacts ; {R}iver {E}bro ; {R}iver {H}erault ; {ESPAGNE} ; {FRANCE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrology},
  volume = {522},
  numero = {},
  pages = {684--696},
  ISSN = {0022-1694},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.029},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064045},
}