@article{fdi:010062864,
  title = {{C}omplex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease},
  author = {{M}orris, {A}aron and {G}ozlan, {R}odolphe and {H}assani, {H}. and {A}ndreou, {D}. and {C}ouppi{\'e}, {P}. and {G}u{\'e}gan, {J}ean-{F}ran{\c{c}}ois},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}redominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, {B}uruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. {W}hile the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. {I}n this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of {B}uruli ulcer in {F}rench {G}uiana, an ultraperipheral {E}uropean territory in the northeast of {S}outh {A}merica, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. {F}rom this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of {B}uruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the {E}l {N}iño-{S}outhern {O}scillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. {L}ong-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of {B}uruli ulcer in {F}rench {G}uiana.},
  keywords = {{INFECTION} ; {BACTERIE} ; {FACTEUR} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {PLUIE} ; {PRECIPITATION} ; {VARIATION} {SAISONNIERE} ; {ANALYSE} {STATISTIQUE} ; {ANALYSE} {SPECTRALE} ; {ETUDE} {COMPARATIVE} ; {ANALYSE} {DE} {COHERENCE} ; {GUYANE} {FRANCAISE} ; {AMERIQUE} {DU} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}merging {M}icrobes & {I}nfections - {N}ature},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {art. e56 [9  en ligne]},
  ISSN = {2222-1751},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1038/emi.2014.56},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010062864},
}