@article{fdi:010062725,
  title = {{R}obust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in {W}est {A}frica},
  author = {{S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {G}uan, {K}. and {K}ouressy, {M}. and {B}iasutti, {M}. and {P}iani, {C}. and {H}ammer, {G}. {L}. and {M}c{L}ean, {G}. and {L}obell, {D}. {B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}est {A}frica is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. {H}ere we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in {W}est {A}frica and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. {T}owards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected {CMIP}5 climate models and two crop models ({SARRA}-{H} and {APSIM}) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. {I}n broad agreement with the full {CMIP}5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 degrees {C} in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in {W}est {A}frica with less rain in the {W}estern part of the {S}ahel ({S}enegal, {S}outh-{W}est {M}ali) and more rain in {C}entral {S}ahel ({B}urkina {F}aso, {S}outh-{W}est {N}iger). {P}rojected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the {W}estern part of the {S}ahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the {S}ahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. {I}n response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to {CO}2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the {W}estern part of the {S}ahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. {S}uch differences in climate and impacts projections between the {W}estern and {E}astern parts of the {S}ahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. {W}e investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to {CO}2. {A}dverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. {E}asing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. {F}inally, {CO}2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate impacts on sorghum yields by about 10%, with drier regions experiencing the largest benefits, though the net impacts of climate change remain negative even after accounting for {CO}2.},
  keywords = {climate change ; crop ; {A}frica ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {SENEGAL} ; {MALI} ; {BURKINA} {FASO} ; {NIGER} ; {SAHEL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {9},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {art. 104006 [13 p.]},
  ISSN = {1748-9326},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104006},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010062725},
}