@article{fdi:010062719,
  title = {{E}ffect of temperature on the phenology of {C}hilo partellus ({S}winhoe) ({L}epidoptera, {C}rambidae); simulation and visualization of the potential future distribution of {C}. partellus in {A}frica under warmer temperatures through the development of life-table parameters (plus corrigendum)},
  author = {{K}hadioli, {N}. and {T}onnang, {Z}. {E}. {H}. and {M}uchugu, {E}. and {O}ng'amo, {G}. and {A}chia, {T}. and {K}ipchirchir, {I}. and {K}roschel, {J}. and {L}e {R}ü, {B}runo},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}aize ({Z}ea mays) is a major staple food in {A}frica. {H}owever, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. {I}n {E}ast and {S}outhern {A}frica, {C}hilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. {I}n this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of {C}. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. {T}he temperature-dependent population growth potential of {C}. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35 degrees {C}), relative humidity of 75 +/- 5% and a photoperiod of {L}12:{L}12 h. {S}everal non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. {C}ohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. {F}or spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced {I}nsect {L}ife {C}ycle modeling ({ILCYM}) software. {T}o predict the future distribution of {C}. partellus we used the climate change scenario {A}1{B} obtained from {W}orld{C}lim and {CCAFS} databases. {T}he maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of {C}. partellus in {K}enya. {T}he results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35 degrees {C}; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38 degrees {C}, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. {T}he study concludes that {C}. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. {T}his has serious implication in terms of food security since these areas produce approximately 80% of the total maize in {E}ast {A}frica.},
  keywords = {phenological model ; climate change ; life table parameters ; maize stem borer ; potential future distribution ; {KENYA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of {E}ntomological {R}esearch},
  volume = {104},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {809--822; corrigendum p. 823},
  ISSN = {0007-4853},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1017/s0007485314000601},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010062719},
}