@article{fdi:010062660,
  title = {{P}ersistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates},
  author = {{E}dmunds, {P}. {J}. and {A}djeroud, {M}ehdi and {B}askett, {M}. {L}. and {B}aums, {I}. {B}. and {B}udd, {A}. {F}. and {C}arpenter, {R}. {C}. and {F}abina, {N}. {S}. and {F}an, {T}. {Y}. and {F}ranklin, {E}. {C}. and {G}ross, {K}. and {H}an, {X}. {Y}. and {J}acobson, {L}. and {K}laus, {J}. {S}. and {M}c{C}lanahan, {T}. {R}. and {O}'{L}eary, {J}. {K}. and van {O}ppen, {M}. {J}. {H}. and {P}ochon, {X}. and {P}utnam, {H}. {M}. and {S}mith, {T}. {B}. and {S}tat, {M}. and {S}weatman, {H}. and van {W}oesik, {R}. and {G}ates, {R}. {D}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. {T}o evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. {B}ased on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the {C}aribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the {I}ndo-{P}acific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. {W}hether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. {A}n analysis of fossil-reef communities in the {C}aribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. {A}s coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. {S}ensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. {T}ogether, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. {G}iven this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN} ; {CARAIBE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}los {O}ne},
  volume = {9},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {e107525},
  ISSN = {1932-6203},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0107525},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010062660},
}