@article{fdi:010061887,
  title = {{I}ncreasing frequency of extreme {E}l {N}ino events due to greenhouse warming},
  author = {{C}ai, {W}. {J}. and {B}orlace, {S}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and van {R}ensch, {P}. and {C}ollins, {M}. and {V}ecchi, {G}. and {T}immermann, {A}. and {S}antoso, {A}. and {M}c{P}haden, {M}. {J}. and {W}u, {L}. {X}. and {E}ngland, {M}. {H}. and {W}ang, {G}. {J}. and {G}uilyardi, {E}. and {J}in, {F}. {F}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}l {N}ino events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. {T}he 1997/98 episode, often referred to as 'the climate event of the twentieth century'(1,2), and the 1982/83 extreme {E}l {N}ino(3), featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west {P}acific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern {P}acific. {S}uch a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme {E}l {N}ino, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems(4,5), agriculture(6), tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide(3,7-9). {P}otential future changes in such extreme {E}l {N}ino occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. {H}ere we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. {W}e estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject phases 3 ({CMIP}3; ref. 10) and 5 ({CMIP}5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble(12). {T}he increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial {P}acific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters(13,14), facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} ; {ZONE} {EQUATORIALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {C}limate {C}hange},
  volume = {4},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {111--116},
  ISSN = {1758-678{X}},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1038/nclimate2100},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061887},
}