@article{fdi:010061800,
  title = {{P}rojecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution},
  author = {{D}ueri, {S}ibylle and {B}opp, {L}. and {M}aury, {O}livier},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate-induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. {H}ere, we use the {APECOSM}-{E} numerical model ({A}pex {P}redator {ECOS}ystem {M}odel - {E}stimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. {T}he main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. {P}hysical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the {IPSL}-{CM}5 {E}arth {S}ystem {M}odel run from 1990 to 2100 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario ({RCP}8.5). {O}ur simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. {T}he model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. {T}he primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. {O}ur projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. {S}pawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. {O}n the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. {U}ncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed.},
  keywords = {{K}atsuwonus pelamis ; {I}ndian {O}cean ; {P}acific {O}cean ; {A}tlantic {O}cean ; {APECOSM}-{E} ; scenario ; tropical tuna ; global warming ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN} ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {C}hange {B}iology},
  volume = {20},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {742--753},
  ISSN = {1354-1013},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1111/gcb.12460},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061800},
}